Men's Basketball Preview at Garden City (February 25th)

#RV Butler at Garden City

Saturday, February 25th | 4:00 PM Tipoff

Conestoga Arena | Garden City, Kansas

Watch Live: butlergrizzlies.com/watchlive

Dennis Higgins Radio Broadcast: 98.7 FM | 1330 AM KNSS

Live Stats: https://tinyurl.com/mw2j44u8

Massey Ratings Score Prediction (masseyratings.com): Butler 71, Garden City 75

Other Massey Ratings Insights: Chance to win %: Butler 38%, Garden City 62%, Betting line: Garden City: -3.5, Game O/U: 147.5 points

Series Since 2011: Butler leads 11-8 | Last Meeting: January 11th, 2023: Butler won 79-69 in El Dorado

Opening notes: 

• The Butler Grizzlies will travel to Garden City to wrangle with the Broncbusters on Saturday afternoon with tip-off scheduled for 4PM
• This game will have major implications on the upcoming Region VI Playoffs
• The winner of this game will almost certainly lock up a first-round bye in the opening round of the playoffs
• The loser will need a lot of help to obtain a first-round bye
• The Grizzlies are looking for the season sweep of the Broncbusters for the first time since the 2012-2013 season as Butler won the first matchup of the year on January 11th, 79-69 at home
• Butler has won seven of their last ten games and have split their last four
• Garden City has won eight of their last ten and have won five straight games
• Last time vs Garden City: The Grizzlies led wire-to-wire in a game that they controlled from start to finish. Four Grizzlies finished in double figures with Javon Grant leading the way with 17
• Butler is 12-2 this season playing against unranked teams (only losses are vs Colby and at NW Tech)
• Butler is 27-22 on the road since Kyle Fisher took over as head coach of the Grizzlies
• Garden City is in their first year in the Rusty Elmore era and they sit at 20-7 overall in his first season as a Broncbuster
• Butler is 8-5 on the road this year, but they have lost three of their last four road trips
• The Grizzlies are 11-2 this year when playing on a Saturday and are 6-2 away from home on Saturdays this year

Last action for the Grizzlies 

Saturday, February 22nd | Cowley 76, Butler 82 Final – 3OT 

• The Butler Men played in and won their most dramatic game of the season to this point
• The Grizzlies did not hold a lead in the games for over 25 straight minutes between the second half and the overtime periods and still managed to win
• Rob Brown was clutch late for the Grizzlies, making a late layup that sent the game to overtime, a last-second layup to send the game to a second OT and a three pointer that gave the Grizzlies their first lead in almost half an hour of game time 
• The Grizzlies managed to generate 39 free throw attempts in the game, their second most this season
• The Butler Men made 23 free throws in the game, their sixth straight game making at least 17 shots from the charity stripe

Scouting the Broncbusters

• The Busters are in their second season under the direction of former Colby head coach Rusty Elmore
• Garden City has a big three that each average 15+ points per game: Daijion Humphrey (17.4PPG), Jaborri McGhee (16.3 PPG), and Buru Naivalurua (15.1 PPG)
• The Broncbusters are a good three-point shooting team, they rank 2nd in the conference in three-point percentage at 37.4% just behind Coffeyville who is at 37.6%
• Garden also values the basketball better than most, as they average just 13.9 turnovers per game, which is the second fewest in the Jayhawk
• Teams shoot the three ball better against Garden City than anyone else in the conference. On average, teams shoot 36.1% from behind the arc against the Broncbusters. The highest mark in the conference 

Notes about the series

• Butler leads the series 11-8 since 2011 and the teams have split the last four matchups
• The Grizzlies suffered their second worst defeat of the Kyle Fisher era when they played at Garden City last season
  • The Grizzlies turned the ball over 34 times in an ugly 64-94 loss
• Neither side has swept the other in a two-game season series since Garden City swept the 2017-2018 series
• Butler is 2-5 at Garden City since 2011
• Butler's last win at Garden City came on January 20th, 2020, when the Grizzlies survived a comeback attempt from Garden to win 78-73

NO LEAD IS SAFE WHEN THE GRIZZLIES ARE BEHIND

• The Butler Men have overcome four double-digit, second half deficits this season  

How the Grizzlies can get a first-round bye in the Region VI Playoffs

First, a look at the conference standings with the teams that can still grab a first-round bye as of now. Each team has two games left

1. Dodge City 17-5 
2. Coffeyville 16-6
3. Barton 15-7 (Currently holds tiebreaker over Butler based on win percentage against Dodge City)
4. Butler 15-7 (Currently holds tiebreaker over Garden City based on head-to-head win percentage)
5. Garden City 15-7

SCENARIO 1 (the easy way):
Butler defeats Garden City to clinch a first-round bye

• The Grizzlies outright clinch a first-round bye with a win against Garden, because Butler would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.
  • This is because even if Butler were to lose their last game and Garden won their last game they would both be 16-8, but Butler would still get bye due to holding head-to-head tiebreaker

SCENARIO 2:

Butler loses to Garden City, but then defeat Independence, and Garden City loses to Hutchinson in their season finale

• This would make each team 16-8 on the year, but Butler would hold a tiebreaker based on Butler's win percentage against Coffeyville

SCENARIO 3: Butler loses to Garden City, but then defeat Independence, and Garden City defeats Hutchinson and Barton loses both of their last two games.

• In this scenario, Butler and Garden City would be 16-8 and Barton would be 15-9, giving Butler and Garden City the byes and Barton dropping to fifth

These aren't the only scenarios, but these are the three most likely to happen. 

A Grizzly W would…

• Improve them to 22-7 overall and 16-7 in conference play
• Clinch a first-round bye in the Region VI Playoffs
• Give them back-to-back wins
• Move them to 9-5 on the road this season
• Be their third straight win over Garden City
• Clinch their fourth straight year of finishing in the top four of the conference

A Grizzly L would…

• Drop them to 21-8 overall and 15-8 in conference play
• Be their third loss in their last five games
• Break their fourth loss in their last five road games
• Drop the Grizzlies out of the top four in the conference

Looking ahead

The Grizzlies will wrap up the regular season on Wednesday, March 1st at home against Independence